A ballot with fourteen names
On 31 May 2026, Colombia holds the first round of a presidential election with fourteen candidates on the ballot and roughly 41 million eligible voters. The Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil and the Consejo Nacional Electoral are the administrative bodies in charge. Under Colombia’s constitutional rule, a candidate wins in the first round only with an absolute majority —50 per cent plus one of valid votes— and, failing that, the two top finishers contest a runoff on 21 June.
The cycle did not begin on Sunday. On 8 March 2026, Colombia held legislative elections and three inter-party consultations in which more than eight million Colombians took part, according to preliminary figures published by the Registraduría and gathered by local press. That day set up three of the candidacies that now lead the polls.
Five pollsters, one name at the top
Two days from the vote, the pattern across firms is consistent. The outlet Pulzo summarised an average of the five main polls —Invamer, GAD3, AtlasIntel, Guarumo-Ecoanalítica and Centro Nacional de Consultoría— that placed Iván Cepeda, candidate of the Pacto Histórico, at 38.6 per cent of voting intention for the first round. Individual figures range from 36 per cent in GAD3 to 44.6 per cent in the Invamer survey published on 21 May by Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio.
In second place, according to the same Pulzo aggregate, comes Abelardo De la Espriella, a right-wing independent candidate, with an average of 23.2 per cent, ranging from 20.4 per cent in CNC to 29.4 per cent in AtlasIntel. Third place is contested by Paloma Valencia, of the Centro Democrático, who reached the first round after winning the Gran Consulta por Colombia held on 8 March. CNN en Español places her voting intention around 12.6 per cent according to CNC, 14 per cent according to Invamer and 21.7 per cent according to Guarumo-Ecoanalítica.
The question is not who wins, but who reaches the runoff
That a runoff will be needed is the shared conclusion of the analysts. The magazine Cambio wrote that the first round entered its decisive stretch with a landscape that points to Cepeda securing first place and De la Espriella and Valencia contesting the second. In hypothetical runoff scenarios pollsters diverge: a Guarumo-Ecoanalítica survey reported by Cambio outlined a scenario where Valencia would beat Cepeda by some five points in the second round, 44.6 per cent against 39.9 per cent.
What those numbers do not resolve is the combination of variables this first round carries: the fragmentation of the centre after Sergio Fajardo’s decision to run on his own, the transfer of votes won by Claudia López in her primary, the behaviour of the blank vote —which, if it were a majority of valid votes, would constitutionally force the repetition of the single-person election— and turnout.
A European observation that already certified March
The European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) is on the ground. The European External Action Service reported that the mission observes, at the invitation of the Colombian authorities, the 8 March legislative and 31 May presidential elections, with Esteban González Pons, vice-president of the European Parliament, as chief observer.
Its preliminary assessment after the legislative day was favourable. In its statement of 10 March, González Pons said that “the observers found the performance of the polling officials to be transparent, accurate and well organised, and the preliminary results were published quickly by the Registraduría”, concluding that “despite the security challenges, Colombia has again shown itself to be a solid, robust and consolidated democracy”. For the 31 May vote, according to the EU EOM itself, more than 120 observers will be deployed from EU Member States, along with Norway and Switzerland, plus a delegation from the European Parliament.
TikTok as the stage of the campaign
The Colombian presidential campaign has leaned heavily on social media, especially TikTok, mirroring a pattern already documented in recent elections elsewhere in Latin America. A comparative study published in Revista Panamericana de Comunicación examined the use of TikTok as a platform for negative political campaigning by presidential candidates in Brazil, Chile and Colombia, identifying strategies of disqualification, polarisation and emotionalisation of political messaging.
On the regulation of the information environment during the cycle, there is a relevant legal precedent. The outlet La Silla Vacía reported in July 2025 that Congress had passed a law regulating the publication of presidential polls, which sparked public debate about the scope of the ban and the balance between transparency and the right to information. The discussion continues: according to Diario La República, academic and journalistic sectors questioned the “gag law” label while the Consejo Nacional Electoral defended the regulation.
A runoff on 21 June if no one passes 50 per cent
If no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of valid votes on 31 May —the scenario all consulted pollsters consider most likely— the two top finishers will face off on 21 June. Wikipedia records that the constitutional article on presidential elections states that in the runoff the winner is whoever obtains the majority of votes, with the ballot date three weeks after the first round.
By then, the dynamics of the campaign will have shifted: the Pacto Histórico candidate will need to broaden his coalition toward the centre, and whichever right-wing candidate advances will have to decide whether to absorb the votes of the eliminated candidates and on what terms. The structural unknown is not the identity of the front-runner, but that of the runner-up.
What Diálogo Ciudadano observes
Colombia enters the second half of the global election year with a pattern of its own: electoral institutions validated by international missions, a media agenda dominated by digital campaigning and a polling system that the regulator tried to reshape mid-cycle. This outlet follows three threads over the next twenty-two days: how digital platforms behave during the polling-ban phase, the documentation of disinformation campaigns by groups such as the national Misión de Observación Electoral, and the reporting of international observers on Sunday’s vote.
The 31 May result will define the geometry of the runoff. How that first ballot was reached is, for this coverage, an equally important question.
This piece will be updated with the official result published by the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil.